Posted June 9th, 2010 by sharkdancer
Many traders want a forex robot that works and enclosed you will find one that is and it won’t cost you a dollar, yet it will out perform over 95% of the robots sold online. Here it is take a look.
Mechanical forex trading systems sold tend to destroy accounts. This is because the track record the forex trader buys is never real, it’s a paper exercise done in hindsight and normally carries this warning:
“CFTC RULE 4.41 – Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown”.
The system has never made real money and paper money means nothing, as you can’t spend that in the supermarket.
These robots are curve fitted i.e. the rules are bent to fit the data and produce a profit.
Data never replicates itself in the exact sequence again and the system takes a bath.
Now were going to look at a simple forex trading system which cannot be curve fitted by its very nature (as it’s only one rule) and has been traded by savvy traders for over 20 years and continually produces great long term profits.
It works on any trending market and of course, currencies are one of the best markets for trends.
Here is the system:
Buy a new 4 week high and sell a new 4 week market low.
That’s it. Very simple and it’s very profitable as it’s based on 2 core foundations that will never change:
1. Big forex trends last a long time
2. Breakouts are where most new trends start from
Don’t assume because its simple it doesn’t make big gains it does.
You can easily test it and see.
Simple forex trading systems always work best, because they are very robust with fewer elements to break than complicated ones.
This is easily proven by looking at all the advances we have seen in forecasting in the last 20 years – we have quicker prices, more powerful computers (your desk top computer has more processing power than the computer that landed man on the moon!) and more complex theories – but has this changed the success ratio in trading?
Not at all.
95% still lose and 5% win and this will always be the case.
Does the system have a downside?
Yes it does when forex markets trend sideways it will get chopped and incur drawdown.
Here you can alter the exit and exit on a 1 or 2 week stop, then go flat and wait for the next 4 week trading signal to get you back in.
Not many traders will bother with this system though and it’s not because it doesn’t make money, it’s because they perceive complexity helps them.
After all, a neural network or system based on chaos theory sounds like it should make money and makes them feel they have technology on their side – but the above system will beat most of these more complex systems hands down.
I once made the mistake of buying a system off an ex NASA engineer and felt it would help the result it wiped my equity out in two weeks!
The 4 Week Rule on the other hand, I have used for 20 odd years and its done great – some periods of drawdown (but all systems have them) and a thumping profit.
To run this system you need tremendous discipline, as it’s not fussy about market timing and it’s brutally mechanical but if you have discipline then it will work a treat.
So before you buy a forex robot which hasn’t been proven try this one – it’s been used by some of the world’s top traders, is easy to understand apply and can lead you to currency trading success.
Check it out and keep in mind it won’t cost you anything to test and it you will surprised at how much money it can make if executed with discipline and with an eye on long term performance.
Posted June 8th, 2010 by sharkdancer
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Posted June 3rd, 2010 by sharkdancer
Of course the theory appeals, plug in a robot and it automatically starts giving you trading signals and you pile up huge profits but this is fantasy land, most will simply wipe your account out and do it quickly…
There are several robots that proudly present back tested track records on what they could have done – but there is a problem here:
You don’t get the advantage of knowing the closing prices in the real world of trading! I can be a millionaire many times over, if I had the future prices today – but I don’t.
Simulated Dollars V Real Dollars
Most of the robots you see (certainly the ones heavily promoted) have track records with simulated and in hindsight written all over them. This proves nothing – its real dollars made, that are the acid test.
Most robots go even further, by presenting there track records better than most fund managers (that’s guys who are paid seven figure fees or more) and yet all you pay is $100! There is no real drawdown (even the best managers will draw down for weeks or months) and 20 – 30% of equity is no uncommon. Doesn’t really add up does it?
I know lots of brokers and as yet, I have not seen a 100 buck robot put them out of a job.
The other thing that always strikes me is the small amounts, you can supposedly turn into large amounts and $100 is often quoted as a minimum.
How do you ride out a drawdown period on that?
Look for Real Dollars
Not all forex robots come with simulated track records and you do get some with long term track records. These have drawdown and realistic gains of between, 30 – 100%, over 3 year holding period. Always look for some real hard evidence that the forex trading system you buy has been applied in the real world of trading.
Anything less than 2 year track record should be discarded.
Most traders want an easy way to make money ( we all do!) but if you are an adult, you know life and making money is not a walk in the park, its hard at times but you can get rewarded if you work at the basics.
Build Your Own Quickly
You can build your own forex trading system and customize it to your risk tolerance; it’s far easy to do, than most people think. If you do build your own forex trading system, you will understand it, have confidence in it and can apply it with discipline for currency trading success.
Reward Requires Effort!
The forex markets offer huge rewards but alas most of the forex robots you see won’t help you win. No effort – no reward in forex trading. So be realistic and get to work, get some proper forex education and your all set to enter the exciting world of global currency trading and win.
Posted June 2nd, 2010 by sharkdancer
Forex trading robots are popular, the theory is you can simply plug and go then sit back make money and let the trading system do the work for you. It’s a great idea and you can make money but you need to consider the vital points below to win.
Most forex trading robots have one vital flaw – they have never been tested real time and never actually made any profits! Forget the clever enticing advertising copy these systems will wipe your equity quickly. Look for the disclaimer below (or similar one) and you will see what I mean.
Look for This disclaimer and ignore the System!
“CFTC RULE 4.41 – Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading….Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown”.
Of course after reading this you will see why they don’t work and the odds are stacked against you. Would you trust a driving instructor who couldn’t drive? Well thousands of forex traders trust vendors who have never traded. These forex trading systems have all been tested knowing the past price history and the track record is simply a simulation on paper and I wouldn’t trust it and neither should you.
Find one With a Real Time Track Record and …
Make sure you understand how and why it works and you are confident in its ability to deliver forex trading profits longer term. If you don’t, you won’t have the discipline to follow it through periods of losses and stick with it through these periods of drawdown to make longer term gains. Keep in mind that if you don’t have the discipline to follow your currency trading system – you may as well not have one!
If you want one with a great record of success long term check out Richard Donchians 4 Week Rule, we have written on this frequently and its Keep in mind the above system is free and you can use it as you wish and it has been the basis for many a successful trading system.
A Forex trading system with a real time track record doesn’t come cheap and you’re looking to pay in the region of at least $1 – 2,000 upwards in price, so the 4 Week Rule which will out perform most sold robots anyway and is a great place to start and of course it’s free.
Tip 3 – Robots are programmed by Humans!
There is this image that a robot works on its own but it can only work within the limitations of the programmer.
Humans think robots can think for themselves like some robot from Star Trek (but this is rubbish the markets have to many variables) and a forex trading system can only react not think independently. While they are programmed by humans, this doesn’t mean they can’t be successful they can – but there not perfect.
ALL Forex trading robots will lose for periods of time that’s life but this doesn’t mean to say they can’t make profits over the long term, they can but you must be patient and disciplined.
The right forex trading robot can and will make you money. Just keep in mind there not perfect and you will need to have confidence in the logic of them, to follow them to long term currency trading success.
Get the right one and follow it with discipline though and you could make a lot of money.
Posted June 1st, 2010 by sharkdancer
If you want to buy an automated forex robot you have a lot of choice but the fact is most are junk with made up simulated paper track records. There are a few good ones out there and this article will help you find the best forex robots.
Here are some tips to help you find a forex robot that works
DON’T Buy Simulations!
Most forex automated robots are rubbish and claim to be able to make big money but you look at the risk warning on the track record and see the words in “hindsight” and “simulated” Of course, this is easy and anyone can make up a track record knowing all the facts.
You have to think to yourself if the robot works, why hasn’t the vendor traded it?
By discounting all the forex robots which don’t have long term results in real time, you are getting rid of well over 90% of them.
Get REAL TIME Results
Now lets look at what you need to look for to find a good one.
You won’t be surprised that the first thing to look for is a real track record over several years that has been independently evaluated. Of course past results never indicate future profits – but it gives you confidence in the system and at least the logic is soundly based.
Understand The System!
If you want to follow a system (even if it’s made money in the past) you need to how it generates its trading signals, so you can have confidence in it. If you don’t have confidence, you will never be able to execute the signals as their generated and if you don’t do this, you don’t have a system at all!
So unless the logic is revealed to you and you agree with it, don’t trade the system.
Be Realistic
The automated robots with the fake track records say you can make a 100k a year and trade with $100 but this is fantasy, not reality.
In the real world, this is what you should expect from the best forex trading systems:
- Gains of between 30 – 100% per annum
- Losing Periods of a few weeks to a few months
- Losses of between 20 – 50% of your equity at some point
If you are trading a system then stick with it and judge it over a 2 year period.
Short term performance means nothing and all systems will have a losing streak, it’s the long term that counts.
If you get the right system, you can make the cost of it back many times over and you have a tool which will in 30 minutes a day give you a fantastic second income.
Take your time and shop around and you will find an automated forex robot that’s just right for you in terms of risk to reward and you are then all set, to enjoy long term currency trading success with it.